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According to a CNN report on the 10th, a giant space probe is about to crash into Earth's atmosphere years earlier than expected. NASA stated that while most parts of the probe will likely burn up upon atmospheric reentry, some components may survive and pose a threat to the ground.
NASA and the US Space Force announced that initial analysis predicts this approximately 600-kilogram probe may enter the atmosphere around 7:45 PM ET on the 10th, but the exact time has a 24-hour window of "uncertainty." NASA stated in a press release that the probability of the resulting space debris causing harm to people on the ground is about 1 in 4,200. NASA declared the probe's hazard as "low risk" because approximately 70% of the Earth's surface is covered by oceans; therefore, any surviving probe debris will most likely fall into the open ocean rather than cities and their surrounding areas.
The Two "Van Allen" Probes Launched in 2012
The spacecraft is the retired "Van Allen A" probe, launched in 2012 along with its twin probe "Van Allen B" to study the Van Allen radiation belts—bands of highly energetic cosmic particles trapped by Earth's magnetic field—orbiting at an altitude of approximately 640 to 58,000 kilometers above the ground. In a statement, NASA said: "The Van Allen radiation belts protect Earth from cosmic radiation, solar storms, and the solar wind, which are harmful to humans and can damage technology, so understanding the Van Allen radiation belts is crucial. The data collected by the probe is vital for predicting how solar activity affects satellites, astronauts, and even systems on Earth such as communications, navigation, and power grids."
The two "Van Allen" probes had an originally planned lifespan of only two years, but they operated well beyond that until running out of fuel and ending their mission in 2019. At that time, NASA planned for these probes to burn up in the atmosphere as they fell back to Earth; typically, the high temperatures generated by a probe during high-speed atmospheric reentry are sufficient to incinerate it. According to NASA's requirements, US-launched spacecraft must re-enter the atmosphere or be safely disposed of within 25 years after their mission ends, which includes de-orbiting the spacecraft or placing it in a "graveyard orbit" (a designated spatial region for defunct spacecraft to remain in orbit). However, leaving spacecraft in a "graveyard orbit" does not completely eliminate the risk of orbital collisions, and any collision could result in space junk scattering into orbital regions populated by other functioning satellites.
Abnormal solar activity led to a change in the retirement plan for the "Van Allen A" probe. NASA predicted the probe would return to Earth in 2034, "but these calculations were made before the start of the current solar cycle, which has proven to be far more active than expected. In 2024, scientists confirmed that solar activity had reached its maximum, triggering intense space weather events," NASA said in a statement. "These conditions increased the atmospheric drag on the spacecraft beyond initial estimates, causing the probe to re-enter the atmosphere earlier than expected."
The impact of solar activity has also shortened the in-orbit time of the "Van Allen B" probe, though perhaps to a slightly lesser extent. According to NASA's latest estimates, the "Van Allen B" probe will re-enter Earth's atmosphere no earlier than 2034.
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